Statement regarding Nordic-Baltic financial crisis simulation, January 2019
The Nordic and Baltic financial stability authorities have conducted a joint financial crisis management exercise. The exercise was held from 22 to 23 January 2019 and involved 31 authorities from Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden as well as relevant European Union authorities. The exercise followed a hypothetical crisis scenario involving fictitious financial institutions in the Nordic and Baltic countries and tested the respective authorities’ crisis management capabilities and regional cooperation.
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Survey of market expectations
The Central Bank of Iceland’s market expectations survey was carried out on 21-23 January. The survey findings suggest that market agents’ short- and medium-term inflation expectations have fallen since the Bank’s late-October survey. According to the median response in this survey, participants expect inflation to measure 3.6% in Q1/2019, rise to 3.7% in Q2, and remain there for the rest of the year. They also expect inflation to measure 3.5% one year ahead and 3% two years ahead. The survey also indicates that respondents expect the EURISK exchange rate to be 138 in one year’s time, which entails a slight weakening of the króna from the time the survey was conducted.
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Monetary Policy Committee Report to Parliament
The Monetary Policy Committee Report to Parliament on the Committee's work during the second half of 2018 has been published on the Central Bank’s website. The Act on the Central Bank of Iceland stipulates that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Iceland submit to Parliament a report on its activities twice a year and that the contents of the report be discussed in the Parliamentary committee of the Speaker’s choosing.
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Foreign exchange market, exchange rate developments, and international reserves 2018
The króna depreciated by 6.4% in 2018, and turnover in the interbank foreign currency market contracted sharply year-on-year. In H2/2018, the Central Bank sold currency in the interbank market three times, with the aim of mitigating fluctuations in the exchange rate of the króna. The exchange rate was relatively stable in the first eight months of the year, and turnover was limited. The market grew turbulent in the autumn, partly because of uncertainty in the air transport sector, and the currency weakened. In December, the exchange rate rose again after a relatively sharp decline since the beginning of September. The Central Bank then bought currency in the interbank market for the first time in more than a year. The international reserves amounted to 736 b.kr. at the year-end, or 26% of GDP.
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Seminar: Economic Crisis in Nordic and Baltic Countries
Seminar introducing a new book: The Economic Crisis and its Aftermath in the Nordic and Baltic Countries - Do As We Say and Not As We Do. The seminar will take place at the Central Bank of Iceland on Wednesday 16 January at 15:00 in the meeting room Sölvhóll. Speaker: Hilmar Þór Hilmarsson, professor at the University of Akureyri. The seminar will be in English.
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